Lancashire Chase

It's customary to justify a bet, and in Saturday's Lancashire Chase reasons for backing Diamond Harry are already beginning to sound a little tired:

• The Gold Cup winner Long Run won't be fully wound-up for this race and last season he failed to win first time out;

• A Gold Cup win, no matter how impressive, can leave a mark - even on the young ones (Imperial Call, Kicking King, War Of Attrition); 

• Diamond Harry acts well on a flat track and goes well fresh.

"Fully tuned-up", "goes well fresh", "likes a flat track". It's a game of cliches as well as opinions.

Backers of Kauto Star will play the same game: Nicholls will have got him match fit for this one race; Diamond Harry is now in the "they never come back from injury" category etc.

The only real point is that, at 6/1, Diamond Harry looks worth a bet just in case Long Run misfires and just in case lots of other things. Even if I think he should be 5/1 he's still around 83% likely to lose.

Diamond Harry: 2pts win at 6/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral)

the likeable Diamond Harry (10 wins from 13 races)