November Novice Chase

A player once said that the problem with most punters is that they just keep trying to back winners.

Concentrate on the numbers and the winners will take care of themselves.

The odds-on Al Ferof is by far the likeliest winner of the November Novice Chase at Cheltenham today.  But it's his first time over the big black ones under Rules. Nor will he be fully tuned-up (probably won't need to be). And his profile suggests he's much better in the second half of the season, while hinting at a slight clumsiness over obstacles.

Toubab, the Nicholls second string, was an interesting alternative until he was pulled out.

But the fit & in-form Court In Session, who looks a big jumping sort, is worth a small interest at 8/1.

Others looking for a shock will go with Bellvano at 13/2 from the Henderson yard. Cheltenham, as its star continues to burn so brightly, is less and less a place for the little trainer. 10 of the 12 races run so far at this Open Meeting have been trousered by the Nicholls/Mullins/Pipe/Henderson camps.  The other two have been won by big yards too (O'Neill & Harrington).

It's a marginal call, but we get a slightly better price about the Keighley horse, and Henderson will take his best novice chasers to the Hennessy meeting at the end of the month.

With just eight runners and an odds-on favourite, we're in each-way country.

Bank: 100pts

Court In Session: 1pt e/w at 8/1 (Ladbrokes, 1/4 odds 1, 2 or 3)