On the 13th one of the market principals knocks an immaculate four iron to within two feet of the hole. Immediately the player's odds sharply contract. After a brief scramble the market settles down, and the tournament continues.
Who are the silent layers, happy to accommodate the flurry of punters excited by this one shot? Happy to do so in the knowledge that this player must play another twenty fateful shots before he can land the title, or that one of his rivals might shortly hole one from the sand.
When a chaser or hurdler bolts up in a decent race its odds for the Festival contract.
And when they appear to run below form their odds (sometimes!) are pushed out.
Before racing at Naas yesterday Un Atout was a best price 20/1 for the Surpeme Novices' Hurdle. Now he's down to 8/1, the clear second favourite. Why? Because he trotted up in a little novice hurdle. He didn't deserve to be shortened up as much as that. He didn't beat anything special, it wasn't even a graded race, and it was run on atrocious ground. On the other hand, he is trained by Willie Mullins and now looks the leading hope in the race for the Gigginstown ownership.
I have to say - I'm a big fan of the horse (see my earlier preview of the Supreme) and it wouldn't surprise me if he turned up at Cheltenham and ran a mighty race. But we simply don't yet know how he'll cope when eventually asked to compete against the best horses in the novice division.
In conrast, yesterday morning AUPCHARLIE was priced at around 8/1 for the Jewson Novice Chase. Like Un Atout he was big odds-on to win his race at Naas. But contrary to market expectations he was turned over by Tofino Bay, and his odds for the Jewson were pushed out. He's now 12/1.
And at that price I think he's worth a bet. In his previous race, a truly-run Grade 1 at the Leopardstown Christmas Festival, he ran a stormer, beating Tofino Bay by more than 25 lengths. Yesterday's race, run in conditions that would have levelled King Lear, clocked in at around 7 minutes and 35 seconds. His previous race, over the same distance of 3 miles, was run in 6 and a half minutes (and that was on ground described as soft).
On better ground there's every chance that Aupcharlie will recover his previous form. The question is whether he can perform over the shorter Jewson trip of 2m 4f which will be won in a time on or under 5 minutes.
The Jewson is quite an attractive ante-post race because it's no longer a handicap. Since it was given Grade 2 status a couple of years ago it's attracted small fields of around 10 runners. And this year the tinkerers have added a new novice handicap to the Festival, which might further dilute the Jewson field.
I'm also quite keen to oppose Captain Conan (4/1), the Nicky Henderson trained favourite, because he may be vulnerable on quicker ground. Aside from him and Dynaste (presumably bound for the Grade 1 RSA Chase) this season's novice chasers in Britain don't look great, although Lucinda Russell's Tap Night (20/1) up in Scotland is one worth keeping an eye on.
Jessie Harrington's Oscars Well is the one I fear most at this stage, and at 10/1 he's not a bad price either. He'll be a good bit shorter than that if he wins the P J Moriarty at Leopardstown next month, that's for sure.
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| Aupcharlie - yet another Irish addition to the portfolio |
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