Not till a hot January

January - too old and cold and settled in its ways.  One way of dealing with the blues of January is to devote as many of its drab hours as possible to one of life's enduring pleasures: ante-post betting on the Cheltenham Festival. C'mon on!

By the end of the month around 10% of my bank will be riding on the outcome of a handful of hotly contested chance-filled championships in mid-March.  It's gambling, of course, but I'm sure to end up referring to my "investment portfolio" - and if I don't walk away with a profit I'll be most displeased.

So here goes with the biggest race of them all.

THE GOLD CUP

Bobs Worth (3/1) - Hennessy winner (see it here) and worthy favourite but a recurring theme of this project will be to leave the short ones alone.  Even if he gets there in one piece, will he be much shorter than 3/1 on the day? Surely no shorter than 2s?  I've looked again at his RSA Chase win at the last Festival and have to admit he's a better jumper than I'd given him credit for - mostly workmanlike & economical, yet capable of standing off the ditch at the top of the hill (RSA Chase 2012 here). Unbeaten at Cheltenham, highly likely to get the trip, an admirable horse.

Next in the market is a cluster of three:

Sir Des Champs (7/1) - battered by Flemenstar in the John Durkan over 2m 4f, and then jumped patchily when a close-up but staying-on fourth in the Lexus (an incredible race worth watching here).  Many shrewd commentators expected him to win the Lexus comfortably if Flemenstar failed to get home. And as it happened Flemenstar, who was laughing at them on the turn for home, did fail to get home.

Silviniaco Conti (7/1) - unbeaten this season, winning both the Charlie Hall and Lancashire Chases up north (Lancashire Chase 2012 here).  An improver, and while the form may not be the best on offer, his wins have been convincing. Bypassed the Festival last year after a shocking prep in the Reynoldstown, and as yet has no chasing experience 'round Cheltenham.

Long Run (7/1) - a mere 6 year old when skating home ahead of top class horses in the 2011 Gold Cup. Subsequent stranger to the winner's enclosure, but finally added another Grade 1 in the King George this Christmas (King George 2012 here).  His victory there, though, against an indifferent field of non-stayers looked way below the form of his impressive win in the same race two years ago.

There's another small group of horses at 12/1 or 14/1:

Tidal Bay (12/1) - uber-talented thinker, who'd apparently bite you as soon as look at you. But Paul Nicholls has worked wonders with him.  First, he sluiced up under top weight against plodders in the old Whitbread Gold Cup. He then came second in the Hennessy under the same weighty burden.  And even better, he returned to Grade 1 company and came from a parish not known to us to beat younger, more fancied horses in the Lexus.  

Flemenstar (14/1) - most likeable jumper with stacks of tactical speed.  He was the big new hope for Ireland until he emptied on the Lexus run in, although to his credit he rallied when headed.  May be re-routed to an alternative Festival race but will have at least one more stab at 3 miles before March.

First Lieutenant (14/1) - improving all the time, he surprised many by beating Flemenstar and Sir Des Champs in the Lexus, especially when he's thought to prefer much quicker ground.  Seemingly well held by Bobs Worth, however, who outstayed him in the RSA Chase and then, after the summer break, beat him again in the Hennessy.

We're then into the outsiders: Captain Chris (25/1 - unlucky second in the King George but lacked tactical pace in that race and hasn't jumped well at Cheltenham since winning the Arkle in 2011); The Giant Bolster (25/1 - second in last year's sub-standard Gold Cup but unconvincing this season, though may do better at Cheltenham on faster ground); and it's 33/1 bar those, including Hunt Ball, another who may outrun his unflattering current form on better ground.

Inevitably there will be the usual hype about sending the dominant novice chaser straight to the Gold Cup. Invariably a smoke screen, so I can't be having Dynaste (as low as 14/1 in a place) on my mind.

At the prices, Tidal Bay at 12s seems the value call because (1) the Lexus looks to me like the strongest 3m chase form this year, and (2) he was giving Bobs Worth 6lbs when finishing just over 3 lengths behind him in the Hennessy. But because he's now a 12 year old veteran and remains such a tricky ride, I'm inclined to look for a bigger priced horse outside this group. The one single piece of form that catches the eye is LAST INSTALMENT's drubbing of First Lieutenant in the Topaz Fort Leney Novice Chase over 3 miles at Leopardstown last Christmas (watch him jump for fun here).

Last Instalment - scopey

Last Instalment ended his novice career over fences last February, when injury cut short his unbeaten season. Like Flemenstar he jumps brilliantly, but unlike Flemenstar he appears to stay 3 miles very well.

The big question is whether he'll make it to the Gold Cup at all.  Assuming they get him back, connections aim to run him in a couple of small Graded events before March, starting in the Kinloch Brae in January at Thurles over 2m 4f.  Even if he comes through these tests, they may be inclined to go for the Ryanair as a stepping stone to the Gold Cup in 2014. He's had an injury, so they may avoid the Festival altogether unless the ground is very much on the easy side.  He also runs in the Gigginstown colours, and their first string for the race remains Sir Des Champs, with First Lieutenant also tapping at the door.

He's a general 33/1 on the high street and more than twice that price to small money on betfair, which is possibly a bad sign - although no-one seems to be lining up just yet to lay him all day long. At this price I'm happy to take a chance on him, and may revisit this market if the plan backfires.

Gold Cup: Last Instalment - 1% win at 33/1