It's not uncommon for the RSA to be won by a skinner: remember Hussard Collonges at 33/1? Rule Supreme at 25s? Remember Star de Mohaison at 14/1 and Bostons Angel at 16s? All since the turn of the millennium.
Yet the winners usually come via the obvious trials (in England: the Rising Stars at Wincanton, the Berkshire & Worcester races at Newbury, the Feltham at Kempton, the Dipper at Cheltenham and the Reynoldstown at Ascot. In Ireland: the Drinmore at Fairyhouse, the Fort Leney and the P J Moriarty at Leopardstown).
In Britain it's a one horse book. The most formidable rivals to Dynaste are unlikely runners. Kim Bailey, as he dreams of a long-awaited second Gold Cup, has already said that Harry Topper (25/1), who came from a place called Nowhere to win the Worcester over 3 miles, will not be running in the race. And according to Emma Lavelle Highland Lodge (20/1), a ready winner of a Cheltenham novice chase last month, would only run if the ground came up very soft.
Other so-called contenders, such as Houblon des Obeaux (33/1), Court In Motion (33/1) and Hadrian's Approach (20/1), don't look good enough - or rather haven't looked good enough on the soft ground we've had to endure this season, week in week out. Paul Nicholls' Unioniste (20/1) is an intriguing novice. He won a competitive handicap over two and a half miles at Cheltenham off a low weight in December, but it's not yet clear whether or not he'll be sticking to handicaps.
Which leaves Dynaste, who's looked the business in three unbeaten starts, culminating in a ready win in the Feltham over Christmas (see the Feltham here). But at 5/2 he makes no appeal as an ante-post proposition. Amusingly, punters will draw parallels between Dynaste and Grands Crus - last year's hot ticket for the RSA at odds of 6/5, who blew up as they turned up the hill and failed even to make the frame. Both winners of the Feltham in a good time without a bother. Both trained by David Pipe. Both grey! But all this shite gives the sensible punter no particular encouragement.
Instead, we hold these Truths to be self-evident: that all men are created equal and that we have to oppose him because he's too short and because this is an acute staying test which isn't won cheaply on the bridle.
Which brings us to the Irish challenge. The Drinmore was won by a favourite of mine, Arvika Ligeonniere, and if all goes to plan he'll be lining up in the Arkle.
The Fort Leney (now called simply the Topaz Chase with no reference to the old Gold Cup winner) was dominated by two horses. Like Flemenstar in the Lexus Chase, Aupcharlie (16/1) looked like the classiest horse in the race, but he was worn down by the dour BACK IN FOCUS (14/1). Leopardstown is a stiffer track than it looks, and these two pulled well clear of the rest (see it here). Both horses are trained by the all-conquering Willie Mullins. He's not often a willing informant for the poor punter, but after this race he was good enough to tell us that Aupcharlie would now likely step back in trip, while Back In Focus shaped like an ideal type for the RSA. The only downside from where I'm standing is that he probably wouldn't want the ground too quick.
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| Back In Focus - a horse who likes to get his head down |
At 8/1 Boston Bob (also trained by Mullins) is the shortest priced Irish horse, based on his fine season over hurdles last year. But so far he has limited experience over fences and wasn't hugely impressive when winning his only start (Boston Bob's chasing debut here).
So it's a no-brainer. Back In Focus sluices up at 14/1. How has this race eluded me in the past?
Back In Focus - 1% win at 14/1
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