The Revenge of Venalmar

I've waited a good while for a bet in the Neptune Novices' Hurdle. Since they introduced to the Festival an additional hurdle race for novices over the longer trip of 3 miles, it's been a nightmare knowing where the stayers are going to go.

Pont Alexandre has looked good in his two outings so far, and when the Festival Preview Circus hits the road I think Ruby Walsh will be reserving the word "machine" for this lad.  But he's only 3/1.  A few years ago Mikael d'Haguenet brought a strikingly similar profile to the Festival. Yet he was as big as 11/2 or 6/1 a week before the race. Pont Alexandre may trot up just like Mikael did, but he's short enough for a horse who's only been seen on the really soft stuff.  

The New One (5/1) was almost certainly over-rated for his run at Warwick where he galloped all over second-rate rivals, and this was borne out by his failure to beat At Fishers Cross at Cheltenham the other day.

Taquin De Seuil (10/1) is tempting at the price. For a bit of a joke trainer, Jonjo tends to do OK at the Festival and this horse looked very good when landing the Winter Hurdle at Sandown. His win in the Challow wasn't visually as impressive, but a 9 length margin in a Grade 1 is still decent enough.

A fair few of the others at the sharp end of the market (Puffin Billy, Un Atout, At Fishers Cross and Ballycasey) seem to be heading elsewhere.

At 14/1 Champagne Fever, a previous Festival winner, could be overpriced - but he'd have to put behind him a shocking effort last time, and may need time to recover from that.

A safer bet at this stage, then, is Mouse Morris's RULE THE WORLD who is 11/1 in places and only a point shorter with the added insurance of Victor Chandler's Non-Runner Free Bet.

Possibly he was massively flattered when breezing home in his own time at Naas last time out (see above). But he remains a highly exciting and progressive young horse.

Back in 2008 I was all over the same trainer's Venalmar in this race, only to see him nutted on the line by Ruby Walsh and Fiveforthree.  Rule The World, out of Elaine Tully, is Venalmar's half-brother and it would be a sweetness indeed to see him return to the old pageant and lay it on down for the family line.

Not much else at really big prices jumps at you, with many of the decent prospects (Chatterbox, Defy Logic, Moscow Mannon) lacking the hurdling experience which seems to have benefited most previous winners of this race.

Rule The World - 1% win at 10/1 (Victor Chandler NRFB)