Swn-Y-Mor Stomp

The Triumph Hurdle used to be something of a joke race. But since they reduced the maximum size of the field (currently 24) and introduced a handicap (the Fred Winter) for the no-hopers who used to just get in the way, it's become a much more attractive event.

Since 2005, apart from the double carpetry of 2012 which will cheer Paddy Maguire to his very grave, the winner has been right up there at the top end of the market:
2005: Penzance 9/1 (23 ran)
2006: Detroit City 7/2F (17 ran)
2007: Katchit 11/2 (23 ran)
2008: Celestial Halo 5/1 (14 ran)
2009: Zaynar 11/2 (18 ran)
2010: Soldatino 7/1 (17 ran)
2011: Zarkandar 13/2 (23 ran)
2012: Countrywide Flame 33/1 (20 ran)

On 15 March, the day of the race, I'm highly likely to be backing Our Conor (currently 6/1) or Far West (8/1), both of whom have impressed this term. They're unlikley to be a great deal shorter then than they are now. The former looks classy all round, while the latter appears to stay very well indeed - and staying is the name of the game for these youngsters running over the stretched 2m 1f trip on the New Course.

I don't think Rolling Star (6/1) has done enough yet to match the form of these two, but he'll no doubt improve. He is, after all, trained by Nicky "The Vet" Henderson who's won this race five times before.

It's 16/1 bar those and that's where we need to be looking for an ante-post interest.

The Mullins horses Diakali and Blood Cotil have it all to do now to reverse the form with Our Conor.

Kashmir Peak and Hidden Justice both represent last year's winning trainer and shouldn't be under-estimated. The latter may run this Saturday against my fancy.

In addition to Far West, Paul Nicholls has Lac Fontana, Irish Saint and Sametegal. Lac Fontana could improve for his recent second in older company, whereas the other two appear held.

Alan King's done well in this race too and he has the unbeaten L'Unique, although she hasn't taken a really notable scalp yet.

The one I like at the prices is SWNYMOR. He would have beaten a fair yardstick in Ruacana if he'd stayed on his feet at Chepstow last time out. Like Our Conor he was an 85+ horse on the Flat, and the ambitious Tim Vaughan is clearly very sweet on him. He travels powerfully, and as a mile and a half horse on the level he should be able to cope better than most with what is almost invariably a brutal stamina test.

Swnymor

He did wander around when produced to win his race at Chepstow, and that's a worry.  If he runs in the Victor Ludorum at Haydock on Saturday he'll need to put that waywardness behind him.  That could be an instructive contest, with Hidden Justice, Sametegal and one or two other interesting types possibly lining up against him.

Swnymor is a general 16/1 shot, but the insurance of the 14/1 NRFB at Victor Chandler is worth considering once again. If he runs and loses on Saturday they may give up the Triumph project altogether, and on the glorious 15th the free bet can go on Our Conor instead...

Swnymor 1% win at 14/1 (NRFB)