The Handicaps

Just over a week now till the Festival and I'm still without a bet in the Champion Hurdle or Champion Chase.

With the ground drying and more bookies offering money back on non-runners, I'll be backing Grandouet for the Champion Hurdle soon.

The Champion Chase is all about Sprinter Sacre, and it's a question of whether to go after a big price for some place money or a market without the favourite. Or simply to leave the race alone.

Next week I'll have a closer look at the Albert Bartlett, together with the 4-Miler and the Bumper.

But what about the handicaps?

With so many championships on the card I've never taken a close interest, and I admire the talented few who are able to unravel them.

If I can find the time I'll have a go this year, with smaller stakes.

The weights have been revealed but - unless some obvious rick flies at you - is there any need to be piling in right now?

Look at the SPs of the winners over the last five years.

In the five handicap chases (we don't include the showjumping event here which has its own distinct profile):

• 12/25 winners started at less than 10/1
• 7/25 were between 10/1 and 18/1 inclusive
• 6/25 were 20/1 or above
• the winner's median price was 10/1

In the five handicap hurdles:

• only 4/24 winners started at under 10/1
• 12/24 were between 10/1 and 18/1
• 8/24 were 20/1 or above
• the winner's median price was 16/1

Combined, only 16/49 winners started at a single figure price on the day. That's less than a third. And only 7/49 favourites won (14%) - 5/25 chasers and 2/24 hurdlers.

The chases seem less erratic, with over half of the winners starting at 10/1 or less (which is not to say we won't see some turn-ups: remember the gallant old boy Mister McGoldrick at 66/1 and Oiseau De Nuit at 40s?).

The hurdles, though, have consistently thrown up big priced winners, with no fewer than 18 of the last 24 starting at 14/1 or over.

This suggests a strategy of waiting until the day except perhaps in the chases, where it may be worth looking for one or two opportunities in the ante-post "non-runner no bet" markets.

Mister McGoldrick, aged 11, bossing the old Mildmay of Flete by 13 lengths at 66/1  in front of a stunned Prestbury