Sizing the Ante-Post Markets

We're always apt to get a little over-excited after a nice win, and the 10/1 for the Arkle proved too tempting to resist after Arvika's exhilarating victory in the Drinmore.  To paraphrase Sylvia Plath, this horse has got me going like a fat gold watch.

There's nothing quite like an unbeaten novice chaser to set you off like a fat gold watch.

Other fine racing minds were keener on the more conservative 6/1 on him to win any race at the Festival, but I just can't see him in anything other than the 2 miler.  Mullins will now step him back to the 2m 1f trip at Leoparstown this Xmas, and if he comes through that (aye, there's the rub) he'd be looking at an ideal prep over the same course and distance en route to Prestbury Park in March.

10/1. Maybe there's a big psychological difference between odds of 10/1 and 9/1. At the "double figure price" of 10/1, the magnificent Sizing Europe was also irresistable in the King George market.  

After fairly battering inferior opposition in the Clonmel Oil Chase recently, surely Henry de Bromhead would relish proving to the doubters that his ageing star of stars really can cut it over 3 miles on what's usually OK ground at Kempton Park on boxing day (or, if he wins, St Stephen's day).

I strongly suspect I'd shed tears if he turned up and did it, whether I had a wedge riding on him or not.  What does that say about the importance of keeping sentiment & gambling strictly apart?

From a staking point of view, I think a cautious 1% of your bank is a sensible enough starting point when playing the medium to long-term ante-post game. 

Sizing Europe - winner of the Arkle & Champion Chase - a horse worthy of your tears